The smoke from last summer’s wildfires still clings to memory for most Canadians. In Vancouver, where I live, the sky turned a thick orange for days. Children stayed indoors. Elderly neighbours taped up windows. We checked air quality apps like weather forecasts. What felt like a crisis then is now being described as part of a pattern we can no longer ignore.
The United Nations weather agency has issued a stark warning that Earth is experiencing a critical energy imbalance more severe than at any point in recorded history. The World Meteorological Organization reports that our planet is absorbing far more energy than it releases back into space. The result is not abstract. It shows up in warming oceans, shifting weather patterns, and the kind of smoke-filled summers that have become routine in British Columbia.
More than ninety percent of the excess heat trapped by this imbalance is absorbed by the oceans, according to the State of the Climate Report. Last year, ocean heat content reached the highest levels ever recorded. The rate of ocean warming has more than doubled over the past twenty years. For coastal communities across Canada, this is not a distant threat. It affects fish populations, storm intensity, and the livelihoods of those who depend on the sea.
The last eleven years have been the eleven warmest on record, stretching back to 1850 when systematic temperature tracking began. When a pattern repeats itself this many times, it stops being a coincidence. It becomes a signal. UN Secretary General António Guterres put it bluntly in a recent video address. “When history repeats itself eleven times, it is no longer a coincidence. It is a call to act.”
The energy imbalance itself is staggering in scale. Between 2005 and 2025, Earth’s energy imbalance increased by about eleven zettajoules per year. That number is hard to grasp until you realize it equals roughly eighteen times the total energy humanity uses annually. The planet is accumulating heat at a pace that dwarfs our entire global energy consumption. This imbalance is being tracked comprehensively for the first time in the new report, giving scientists a clearer picture of just how much we have altered the fundamental energy budget of our world.
The drivers behind this crisis are well understood. Burning coal, oil, and natural gas releases greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat that would otherwise escape into space. The report’s authors emphasize that this increasing vulnerability is driven by human activities. It is not a natural cycle. It is a consequence of choices made over decades about how we power our economies and structure our societies.
I spoke with a fisherman in Tofino last fall who described changes he has seen over thirty years on the water. Species that used to appear in late summer now show up in early spring. Storm patterns have shifted. The predictability that once guided his work has eroded. His experience mirrors what scientists are documenting on a global scale. The systems that have sustained life and livelihoods are being rewritten.
Compounding the current crisis is the looming threat of El Niño, a natural climate pattern that periodically warms the Pacific Ocean. Scientists predict that an El Niño phase could form in the second half of 2026, potentially driving global temperatures to unprecedented levels in 2027. Dr John Kennedy of the World Meteorological Organization warned that a transition to El Niño conditions would likely push global temperatures to new records. The natural variability of El Niño, layered on top of the human-caused warming trend, creates conditions ripe for extreme weather events.
El Niño does not cause climate change, but it amplifies its effects. During previous El Niño years, we have seen droughts in some regions and floods in others. Agricultural systems strain. Water supplies dwindle. Communities already vulnerable to climate impacts face compounded risks. The difference now is that these events are unfolding on a planet that is already warmer than at any time in human history.
António Guterres described the situation in stark terms. “Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red.” His call to action focused on weaning off fossil fuels and adopting renewable energy. The technology exists. Wind, solar, and other clean energy sources are now cost-competitive with fossil fuels in many markets. The challenge is political will and the speed of transition.
In Canada, the conversation around energy transition is complicated by economic dependence on fossil fuel extraction. Alberta’s oil sands, Saskatchewan’s natural gas, offshore drilling in Newfoundland all contribute to national revenues and employment. Yet the same country is experiencing the direct impacts of climate change in every region. Melting permafrost threatens infrastructure in the North. Droughts and heat waves strain agriculture in the Prairies. Floods and fires disrupt lives from coast to coast.
What the UN report makes clear is that the time for incremental change has passed. The energy imbalance is accelerating. The warming is compounding. The choices made in the next few years will shape conditions for generations. This is not about distant futures or polar bears on melting ice. It is about the air our children breathe, the water we drink, and the stability of the systems that sustain us.
Walking through my neighbourhood in Vancouver, I see solar panels appearing on rooftops. Electric vehicles are becoming common. Community gardens are sprouting in vacant lots. These small shifts matter, but they need to scale. The UN’s warning is directed at governments and industries with the power to make systemic changes. Individual actions are important, but they cannot substitute for policy and investment at the scale required.
The eleven warmest years on record were not flukes. They are the result of choices. And choices can change.
